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Partnerships and Progress for Managing Complex Ocean Change
Maria Kavanaugh
Climate-driven changes in ocean temperature, circulation, and chemistry threaten essential ecosystem services, including abundant safe seafood, biodiversity, and cultural connections. However, focused efforts on the interconnection between climate, ocean health, and human health have not been fully embraced by funders or the broader scientific community. This is especially true at a regional scale, where the effects of climate are less predictable, yet where community actions to address vulnerability and adapt to change may be more robust,impactful, and lasting. We welcome presentations that integrate traditional oceanographic observations and frontline community partnerships to highlight:
Modeling Advances Focused in the Eastern Pacific Ocean
Liz Drenkard
Regional ocean modeling has made considerable advances in the seven decades since EPOC’s inception owing to development in numerical methods, model architectures, in situ and remote observations, parameterization schemes, and computing powers. Order (10km) horizontal resolution hydrodynamic modeling with realistic basin geometry is now routinely carried out by research groups. Similar strides and advances will likely be made in the next 70 years, especially with the aid of AI and ML.
In this session, we welcome modeling studies focused on understanding biophysical processes and marine ecosystem dynamics in the Eastern Pacific including the Pacific Arctic. Time scales of interest can range from synoptic to multi-decadal, and model resolution can range from eddy resolving to eddy permitting. These studies are carried out in the context of retrospective hindcasts over the past decades (including using data assimilation), seasonal to multi-year forecasts, and longer time horizon projections (up to the end of the 21st century), and can focus on physical, BGC, and/or ecosystem processes on these time scales. Both dynamical and statistical methods (including ML) may be used in these studies. We also encourage brief historical anecdotes/ reflection regarding community evolution (e.g., equipment, methods) made in presenters’ respective focus areas in honor of the EPOC anniversary.
Physical-Ecological Interactions in Eastern Boundary Currents
Art Miller
Observation, modeling, and prediction of the interactions of physics, chemistry, and ecology in the CCS, ACS, and related EBUS
Air-Sea-Land Interactions and their Impact on Shelf Circulation and Coastal Climate
Christoph Renkl
The ocean plays a fundamental role in regulating the climate along the US West Coast across a variety of spatial and time scales. Similarly, atmospheric and terrestrial processes can have a significant impact on the coast and shelf circulation with implications for biological marine processes. Persistent anomalies in the large-scale atmospheric circulation can lead to anomalous ocean conditions (e.g., marine heatwaves) that, in turn, modify air-sea interaction processes on synoptic time scales with immediate consequences for weather (e.g., atmospheric rivers) or coastal and estuarine circulation (e.g., upwelling events). Associated extreme precipitation events can enhance ocean stratification on the shelf, either directly or via increased river runoff, thereby affecting the ocean and estuaries along the coast, and on the shelf. This session invites contributions that focus on air-sea-land interactions, including, but not limited to the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere and vice versa, and also address how terrestrial events (e.g., wild fires) affect the coastal and estuarine circulation with implications for biological processes.
Autonomous Observations: Successes, Lessons, Aspirations
Eric Bjorkstedt
This session will focus on applications of autonomous or automated observation technologies in oceanographic research and monitoring. Topics range from research and development to proof-of-concept trials to experiments and operationalization.
How best to parameterize our biophysically linked ecological models so they are ‘climate enhanced’ or ‘climate ready’?
Caren Barceló and Will White
Parameterizing different marine ecological models with eco-physiological information to allow these models to be ‘climate ready’ can be a challenge and fraught with tradeoffs and necessary decisions that analysts need to make. How can we improve upon the ecological models we currently work with so that they are considered ‘climate-ready’ and best suited to be used in a predictive capacity provided projected climate change scenarios (given downscaled Earth System Model outputs, for example)? How can they be used to inform natural resource management?
As there are a spectrum of approaches and perspectives on this topic, we invite studies from the broad suite of ecological modeling frameworks available – ranging from a) statistical distribution models linking survey or catch data to oceanographic conditions; b) physiologically-linked population or biophysical models for a single species; or c) life cycle models; d) food web models; to e) end-to-end or whole of ecosystem models -- that have been (or could be) applied in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.
Our goal in this session is to provide a space where we can have a rewarding & stimulating scientific discussion about the benefits, challenges and limitations of these modeling approaches given the call for ‘climate ready’ science.